Isaac Manuel Francisco Albéniz Biography :: essays research papers

Isaac Manuel Francisco Albniz was born on May 29, 1860 in Camprodn, the Catalan province of Gerona in northeastern Spain. As a child he was exceptionally gifted at the indulgent and gave his first public performance in Barcelona at the age of four. Two long time later his mother took him to Paris where, for nine months, he studied privately with a renowned professor of piano at the Paris Conservatory. An attempt was do to enroll Albniz at the Conservatory, but the boy was denied admission because he was too young. Upon returning to Spain he gave several concerts and published his first composition, Marcha Militar.In 1868 the Albniz family moved to capital of Spain where Isaac began studying at the Royal Conservatory of Music. The boys astonishing pianistic ability inspired great praise and he was acclaimed as Spains greatest prodigy, often being compared to Mozart. Soon, however, Albniz became restless and impatient with his studies and attempted many times to run away from home. Twice he ran away from home and back up his living by playing piano for the public and, sometimes, a job as a potter at the deck. After returning home and with the accessory of his father, Albniz first performed in the New World in the spring of 1875 when he gave a series of concerts in Puerto Rico. From there he traveled to Cuba where, in the snuff it of 1875, he gave several more concerts before returning to Spain. Upon returning to Spain, the 15 year old Albniz gave concerts in several Spanish cities, including Barcelona, Valencia, and Salamanca. Realizing that his child prodigy eld were nearing an end, and that the transition from child prodigy to mature artist is never a simple cardinal, Albniz enrolled at the Leipzig Conservatory where he hoped to gain the measure of credibility that one gets from studying at a world famous institution. While there he studied piano with students of Liszt. Short of money, ill at ease with the German language, and unhappy with the rigorous discipline imposed on him by his teachers, Albniz returned to Spain after spending less than two months in the Saxon city where Bach, Schumann, and Mendelssohn once lived. subsequently that same year, Albniz obtained a royal stipend to study at the Brussels Conservatory where, in 1879, he won first prize in piano performance. Following this he made a well-publicized tour of Europe.

Analyzing Suzie Essay -- Health and Wellness

Aspirin binds to COX-2, a protein that makes prostaglandins, inhibiting it from its function. Prostaglandins are normally released by the damaged tissues at Daves sprained ankle site, stimulate nerve endings to produce the sensation of pain (Martini, p. 46).Aspirin is also known as an anticoagulant because it inhibits the production of prostaglandins that also form platelets, used for kind trigger-happy clotting. This is why people who tend to have heart attacks take aspirin, to reduce the chance of blood clots. (Hoffman, 2011)B. Fainting1. Why did Suzie faint when she got up from the table? Explain the specific changes in her CVS that to caused her to faint. There are few reasons that contributed to Suzies fainting spell. Skeletal muscle helps propel the blood in veins back to the heart. Suzie has low blood pressure primarily because she is ravenous herself. Without nutrients from the small intestine, the body is forced to use to stored fats and proteins. The cold environment in the kitchen decreased her blood pressure even more. As a homeostatic mechanism, blood vessels constrict to keep Suzie and the vital organs warm. The lack of oxygen being delivered to the brain caused Suzie to faint and lose consciousness temporarily (Martini, p. 722). Another reason Suzie fainted is because of her prolonged QT interval, detailing the ventricular depolarization/ repolarization time of her heart by the Purkinje fibers. Thirdly, Suzies development of anemia contributed to her fainting because there were probably was not enough healthy red blood cells to deliver oxygen to her brain.When Suzie collapsed, she laid in a horizontal position increasing deliverance of blood and oxygen to the brain. (Martini, p. 722)C. Ectopic Hear... ...als.org/content/94/6/2129.fullHoffman, Lucas, MD, PhD. Aspirin 101 2011. http//health.howstuffworks.com/medicine/medication/aspirin3.htmLacroix, Pierre. An Overview of QT Interval Assessment in Safety Pharmacology. Figure 10.7.1. Curre nt Protocols in pharmacology. July, 2006Martini, Frederic C. Fundamentals of Anatomy & Physiology. seventh Ed. Pearson.National Heart Lung & Blood Institute. Explore Long QT Sydrome. September 2011. http//www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health/health-topics/topics/qt/Pritts, Sarah D., MD. University of Cincinnati College of Medicine. Diagnosis of Eating Disorders in Primary Care. January 15, 2003. http//www.aafp.org/afp/2003/0115/p297.htmlYanowitz, Frank G., MD. The Alan E. Lindsay Center electrocardiogram Learning Center. The University of Utah School of Medicine. 2006 http//library.med.utah.edu/kw/ecg/ecg_outline/Lesson12/index.html

Free College Admissions Essays: Social Work Will Allow Me to Grow :: College Admissions Essays

The Study of Social Work Will Allow Me to Grow The rapidly growing elderly population is becoming a serious social problem in many countries. Some countries have been successful at finding solutions for this problem but other(a)s have not. Japan is unitary of the latter countries. Although Japan has one of the highest life expectancy rates and a reputation for good quality of life for its elderly population, it has been unsuccessful at addressing this problem. Compared to other industrialized countries, Japan lags behind in programs for elders who are physically disabled, bedridden or in pack of long term care. The current economic crisis is exacerbating this situation as the government is cutting funding for elder programs. This problem resonates deeply with me, and I hope to someday work on finding a solution. It is for this reason that I am applying to the graduate program in social work at Boston University I seek the skills and knowledge I need to return to Japan and work for a social work service. My interest in the elderly dates back to my childhood. Growing up with my grandparents greatly influenced my values and spirit they taught me to be self-motivated and disciplined. Their resilience and support has helped me to persevere even when confronted with seemingly insurmountable obstacles. Because of their kindness toward me I have a deep respect for them and for elderly deal in general. This is what motivates me to become involved in the field of social work. Traditionally in Nipponese society, the care of ones parents is believed to be the childrens duty. After World War II, much(prenominal) traditions have evolved due to changes in family structure. No longer is the eldest child the only one to inherit his parents property, and two-income families have become the norm. These changes have left Japanese people at a loss as to how to care for their aging parents. The current response to this problem seems to be hospitalization. Families in creasingly hospitalize their elders who are physically disabled, bedridden or in need of long-term care. These individuals are usually transferred to nursing homes, but because of sparse accommodations and a one to two year detainment list, they end up staying with family members who are often ill equipped to care for them. As a result, there are a number of incidences of elder step by family members and elder suicide.

tupac :: essays research papers

Tupac Shakur was a black African American rapper who lived his life with poverty, violence and drugs. The songs Hellrazor, Me and My miss and the poem In the Event of my Demise reflect the tragedy and pain which was Tupacs life. All his poetry relies on vivid imagery and violent address to create a real realistic picture of how terrible life can be living in the ghettos of America. The song Hellrazor is a very striking song which tells the story of a young black African American male trying to make his way into becoming a Gangsta as he has no other way to support himself. The theme of change is reflected in this song. The song doesnt really have a straight flowing structure. It rhymes in places but there is no pattern to it. For example it rhymes in the 1st two lines -Born nailtless and mean mugginAt 16 on the motion picture watching fiends bugginBut after that it doesnt rhyme for further 8 lines. That leaves a very dramatic effort because it reflects the tension and the viol ence of this song.The song has nigh very harsh and effective similes. For example -When a nigga gettin richer, they come to get yaIt is like a motherfuckin trap and they wonder why its hard organism black. This simile works very well because it uses some really strong emotions and the theme of racism to get the heart through. Also the use of very strong language leaves a lasting image on the listener.The song uses plenty of Gangsta slang. Some examples include - Gat, Loc, 5-0.This is a very memorable song because it is so emotional and tragic. The most vivid lines come when he raps about how a little girl who was killed by a gun. Lines such asDear Lord, if you hear me tell me why?Little girl like Natasha had to dieShe neva got go see the bullet, just heard the shotHer little body couldnt take it, she shake and droppedThis part of the song is very dramatic because of his reference to god and by the way he said that she didnt even see the bullet coming.It is very hard to forget this song because of its strong language and powerful imagery of the girl being murdered.The song Me and my Girlfriend is a very complicated song. The message that Tupac is trying to get through is not what you see written down on the piece of paper.

Progress and Innocence in One Hundred Year of Solitude Essay -- One Hu

Progress and Innocence in One Hundred Year of sex segregation One Hundred Year of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia-Marquez projects itself among the most famous and ambitious works in the history of literature. Epic in scope,Marquez weaves autobiography, allegory and historical allusion to create a surprisingly dogged story line about his forebears, his descendants and ours. It has been said that there are only about 18 or so themes that describe the human condition. This name was made in reference to Shakespeare, and posited that all of the books and movies that we digest and assimilate can be shown to have their roots in these canonical themes. In Cien Anos, Marquez addresses several of these themes in the subtle and interlocking ways that they deserve. This paper will concentrate on two interrelated themes progress and innocence. In its exploration of these concerns, this novel provides no less(prenominal) than a rendering of the trajectory of human evolution. Loss of innocence is a time-worn theme in the literature of every culture. It traditionally takes the form of some pillow slip of epiphany visited upon an unsophisticated character as she grows up and encounters the larger world. The focus of this theme is normally soulal, in the point of view of an individual, or the omnipotent third person account of the reaction of an individual. While this aspect can be found in the novel, it additionally explores the loss of innocence of a family, people or race, called estirpe in the original edition. In the Western sensibility, the march of progress is normally deemed positive and inevitable. In recent Western history, from the Middle Ages forward, successive improvements in the spread of knowledge, dissemination of culture, and the av... ...s of Solitude. In McGuirk and Cardwell, 65-79. Griffin, Clive. The Humour of One Hundred Years of Solitude. In McGuirk and Cardwell, 81-94. James, Regina. Gabriel Garcia Marquez Revolutions in Wonderland. Columbia Univer sity of Missouri Press, 1981. McGuirk, Bernard and Richard Cardwell, edd. Gabriel Garcia Marquez New Readings. Cambridge Cambridge University Press, 1987). Martin, Gerald. On magical and social realism in Garcia Marquez. In McGuirk and Cardwell, 95-116. Williams, Raymond L. Gabriel Garcia Marquez. Boston Twayne, 1984. Williamson, Edwin. Magical Realism and the Theme of Incest in One Hundred Years of Solitude. In McGuirk and Cardwell. 45-63. Wood, Michael. Review of One Hundred Years of Solitude. In tiny Essays on Gabriel Garcia Marquez. McMurray, George R., ed. Boston G. K. Hall, 1987.

Progress and Innocence in One Hundred Year of Solitude Essay -- One Hu

Progress and Innocence in One Hundred course of instruction of Solitude One Hundred Year of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia-Marquez projects itself among the most famous and ambitious works in the history of books. Epic in scope,Marquez weaves autobiography, apologue and historical allusion to create a surprisingly coherent story line about his forebears, his descendants and ours. It has been said that there are only about 18 or so themes that describe the human condition. This quote was made in reference to Shakespeare, and posited that all of the books and movies that we digest and assimilate can be shown to have their root in these canonical themes. In Cien Anos, Marquez addresses several of these themes in the subtle and interlocking ways that they deserve. This paper will concentrate on two interrelated themes approach and innocence. In its exploration of these concerns, this novel provides no less than a rendering of the trajectory of human evolution. Loss of innocence is a tim e-worn theme in the literature of every culture. It traditionally takes the form of some type of epiphany visited upon an unsophisticated character as she grows up and encounters the larger world. The focus of this theme is normally personal, in the target of view of an individual, or the omnipotent third person account of the reaction of an individual. While this aspect can be found in the novel, it additionally explores the expiration of innocence of a family, people or race, called estirpe in the original edition. In the westbound sensibility, the march of progress is normally deemed positive and inevitable. In recent Western history, from the Middle Ages forward, successive improvements in the spread of knowledge, dissemination of culture, and the av... ...s of Solitude. In McGuirk and Cardwell, 65-79. Griffin, Clive. The Humour of One Hundred Years of Solitude. In McGuirk and Cardwell, 81-94. James, Regina. Gabriel Garcia Marquez Revolutions in Wonderland. Columbia Univer sity of Missouri Press, 1981. McGuirk, Bernard and Richard Cardwell, edd. Gabriel Garcia Marquez newly Readings. Cambridge Cambridge University Press, 1987). Martin, Gerald. On magical and social realism in Garcia Marquez. In McGuirk and Cardwell, 95-116. Williams, Raymond L. Gabriel Garcia Marquez. Boston Twayne, 1984. Williamson, Edwin. Magical Realism and the Theme of Incest in One Hundred Years of Solitude. In McGuirk and Cardwell. 45-63. Wood, Michael. reassessment of One Hundred Years of Solitude. In Critical Essays on Gabriel Garcia Marquez. McMurray, George R., ed. Boston G. K. Hall, 1987.

Comparing the two poems nothings changed by Tatamkhulu Afrika and still Ill rise by Maya Angelou Essay

My main aim in this essay is to discover how the two poets describe and let loose their scentings. I pass on do this by focusing on their use of linguistic techniques and what effect this has given on the ratifier. Moreover, I lead concentrated one how the poets reserve structured the poem, by c atomic number 18fully analyzing it.Maya AngelouMaya Angelou is one of the most renowned and influential vo grouch of our time. She has many titles such as memoirist, novelist, educator, dramatist, producer, actress, historian, filmmaker, and civil rights activist. She was born on the 4th April 1928 in St. Louis, Missouri. At the age of 26 Angelou studied modern dance and poetry however her studies did not forbear there. She traveled to C billeto, Ghana, New York and in this time she had mastered French, Spanish, Italian, Arabic, and Fanti. In 1993 she composed a poem at Bill Clintons inauguration it was watched spang on air any around the world.Stanza 1You albumenthorn compile me down in level, with your blistering twisted lies you may trod me in very dirt completely as yet like dust ill drum in his opening verse of the poem, the endorser automatically senses Mayas attitude towards the lecturer and I entangle as though she was spearing the subscriber with these sacred scriptures by aspect your bitter by doing this I estimate that if make the reader olfactory sensation as though they had done all this to Maya, therefore it made the reader feel emotional. Maya Angelo wrote at the start of her poem Your bitter twisted lies in this quotation Angelou is presenting her feelings by harshly adage that you can do w despisever you want with you bitter twisted lies.The watchword twisted shows the reader how untrue these lies be and how hurtful, and unpleasant, these lies are to her. practiced like when you take a piece of paper and you twist it, the creases are impossible to take discover. thus she says the word bitter this shows the reader how dis tressful this is to her and shows the reader that it really hurts her. Trod me in very dirt by facial expression this she explains her self-importance and says that, you can do whatever you want but it doesnt b separate me, still ill get there. She shows that she is full of firmness and determination and postcode leave behind retrovert her. Then at the end of the Stanza off she preserves but still like dust ill improvement by writing this she shows the reader how reassured she is. We can prove this because Angelou has used a simile like dust by writing this she means that merely like dust rises in the air and you cannot see it rising, in the identical focus will she rise.Stanza 2Does my sassiness upset you, why are you beset with gloom, cause I walk like Ive got oil substantiallys pumping in my living room Maya is questioning the reader and I sight that this was a really effective management to get the readers attention, she says, just because Im passionate and lively i s that upsetting you, why are you jealous of me? I impression that Maya purposely wrote this because she wanted to show the reader how inequitable it is and how cruel it is that a psyche cant be themselves.Then Maya writes cause I walk like Ive got oil wells pumping in my living room I thought that this was a really effective and important birth in Angelous poem. I thought that Maya used a powerful metaphor oil wells pumping in my living room I thought that the word oil stood for something world-shattering. If a person has an oil well they maybe very rich and the fact that she has used this, shows that she has something finical at bottom her, Maya is showing her determination because just like if you have oil a person can be very powerful in the same way Maya is saying no one will be able to stop her because she has something special which is determination and courage.Now I will start by analyzing the 3rd stanzaJust like the suns and moons with the certainty of tides, just lik e hopes spring high still ill rise In this stanza Angelo shows her desperation and desire to achieve this goal, which is to end discrimination. Moreover, Angelou refers to the sun, moon and tides to represent her nature. She says that just like the certainty that the sun will rise in the east and set in the west and the moon will appear in the night and tides will wash in and out of seashores in the same way she will achieve this goal. Moreover from my judgment I say that Maya inspires the reader by saying with the certainty of tides hopes spring high she is influencing the reader by saying that your hope will always rise and that it is natural in a persons life just like the tides coming in and out are natural and the sun rise and set is natural.Did you want to see me broken bowed head lowered eyes, shoulders falling like teardrops, weakened by my soulful criesIt thought that this stanza was on of the most effective this was because Maya really expressed her feelings and showed he r true lodgeer self. Unlike the other stanzas I realized that Maya Angelou never wrote Ill rise at the end of the sentence. This was because she wanted to show the reader how much pain and distress discrimination has caused inside her. I think what made this stanza very special was the fact that, for the offshoot time Maya showed her downside, and by doing this she told the reader that the pain inside her that discrimination has caused is something that will stay their forever inside her, and regrettably she can not rise supra that pain. I thought that this made the stanza very emotional because this was something that Maya Angelou could not rise above.Stanza 4In this stanza I felt as though Maya was showing her identity and who she is.Does my haughtiness offend you, dont you take it awful hard what she meant by this was that just because I feel Im higher than every one else and Im proud of myself, is that off stop you, the reason why I thought this was because Maya wrote cause I laugh like Ive got gold mines digging in my own backyard and the word laugh proves this because it shows that she is happy. I thought that this was a really powerful stanza because Maya, establish across the message that, these people are so arrogant and jealous that just because she is proud to be who she is and shes proud that shes black, these people hate it (dont you take it awful hard) what she means by awful hard is that if a white person was proud of his or her self and was proud to be white would we hate it? No so why cant she be herself?Stanza 5You may shoot me with your words, you may cut me with your eyes, you may dash off me with your hatefulness but still like air ill rise in this stanza I felt that Maya made the reader feel guilty, this was because she was putting the send on the person who was reading by saying you may. I thought that this was a really effective way of attracting attentionWhat Maya Angelou meant when she said you may shoot me with your words, you m ay cut me with your eyes, you may kill me with your hatefulness is that you can do whatever you like, whether its your lies shoot me with your words, you can have all the jealousy inside you cut me with your eyes, have all the hatred inside you kill me with your hatefulness, but none of these things will ever stop me but still like air Ill rise, she is saying that its never going to stop me so its bakshishless. On the other hand, we know that these things hurt her inside because she says but still like air Ill rise. My opinion of this was that, she meant that just like you can contaminate air, but you can never stop it from being there. In the same way she is portraying that, all the lies that have been said closely her, and all the hatred, it does hurt her but it will never stop her from reaching this goal that she has always wanted. Ill rise.Stanza 6Does my sexiness upset you, does it come as a surprise what Maya was trying to portray is because she is exciting and she is black , it comes as a surprise to them to see that a black person bandstands out, and a black person to stand up for herself, what she is trying to say, is that it upsets them and they are annoyed to see this. I thought that this really showed the character of these white people and the difference it made if you were black or white on how you were treated. Moreover, once over again Maya Angelou directed this at the reader by saying you and this made the reader feel as though they were one of these white people. Then when I was analyzing this, I thought that they were many different ways of interpreting the word sexiness.My definition was that Maya wrote this because she was speaking on behalf of the black people in the world and not just herself and what this meant was that she was saying that all blacks are naturally attractive in other words they, have something naturally special inside them, and in golf-club to get out it, they need to stand up and rise and be themselves. Maya is saying to all black people that stand up for yourself and you will be the succeeder in the end just like she is a winner. My trial impression of this is, that at the end the poem Maya wrote I rise instead of Ill rise this showed the reader that just like she has said she will rise but know she has risen I rise and also Angelou wrote that I dance like Ive got diamonds at the meeting of my thighs this showed the reader that know she has got something to really boast nigh. To add to that I thought that Maya was a real inspiration to the black community.My second interpretation of this stanza was that Maya wrote this because she was unique, and she was an icon to other black people, and this was very unusual to see in a black person to stand up and become a leader, and my proof of this is she wrote does it come as a surpriseStanza 7Out of the huts of histories shame, I rise here Maya Angelou talks about that out of all what has happened in history she has risen above. Another explana tion was that by saying histories shame she meant that what a humiliation and an embarrassment it is to all of mankind for humans to fight one other and for discrimination to even take place. Then she writes I rise by writing this she is saying that, whatever has happened in history she has know risen above. superstar thing that I had noticed was that at the start of the poem and by the middle Maya wrote Ill rise and toward the end it was I rise I thought that this stud as a symbol and had a meaning. My interpretation was that Maya had written this because she was showing that after all the hard work and hard times she has fought through, eventually she has got were she has always wanted.Stanza 8Up from a past thats rooted in pain I rise This showed the reader how much pain she has been radical and not only her but her family and her generations. We know this because she writes the word rooted. The word rooted has a significant effect because just like the roots of a tree keep growing and have different braches. In the same way pain has passed through her generations and know finally she is the one to stand up and stop this I rise.Stanza 9I am a black ocean, leaping and wide, welling and swelling I bear In the tide, leaving pot nights of terror and fear behind I thought that this was a powerful stanza because Maya was rendering an image to the reader of her courage and power, and also inner strength.By saying that she is a ocean, first of all she uses a metaphor and I thought that increased the effect and secondly if you are and ocean then how can anyone leakage you and she is showing that if anyone wants to fight then they will never be able to escape. My analysis was that she was an ocean carrying fish and plants (people), and without that ocean these fish and plants would suffer, in the same way the black people would suffer from discrimination. To add to this I thought that she is saying that know she has a responsibility to carry these people and to protect them, in a away she is expressing that this gift she has been given has know been unveiled, and she is know were she has always wanted to be, she has power and know one can stop her, in the same way know one can eradicate an ocean. The fact that she is saying that she is leaping far and wide shows us that she is still fighting for freedom and know for all the black people in the world.Stanza 11into a daybreak thats wondrously clear I rise here Maya emphasizes the point that know that she has this power, frontwards of her lies a future that is so clear and exciting.Stanza 12bringing the gifts that my ancestors gave I rise Maya Angelou used a metaphor gifts which really made me think about what I was reading, by saying this it made the line emotive. She is saying that for historic period this gift has been passing on, and yet know one has been successful enough to unveil it and to use it, and know that person is her. The metaphor gifts represents that the rising above dis crimination and putting a stop to it and now she has done this and we can prove this because she writes I rise.Stanza 13The very last few lines of the poem was I am the dream and hope of the slave, I rise, I rise, I rise I thought that Maya really summarized the whole poem by saying this because after all her goal was for blacks to have rights, for blacks to have their freedom, for blacks to unveil theyre gifts that they all have, and for them to live up to high expectations, and by saying I rise, I rise, I rise shows that she has done this and succeeded and know she has changed the life of all black people In the world. I realized that towards the end of the poem instead of using impatience to convey the message instead Maya used emotion, and hope, and by doing this it really made the reader believe that whatever happens in the world Maya will always rise above it.Now I am going to give a design summary on the life of Tatamkhulu Afrika.Born in 1920, Afrika was born and bought up in Cape Town, South Africa he had an Arab father and a Turkish mother. In Africa people were classed according to the color of their skin, However Afrika turned down the chance to be classed as white as he chose to become Muslim which in that time was categorized as colored. Later on in his years he joined the African national congress and but 3 years he was arrested for terrorism and was banned writing or speaking in public for 5 years. He died shortly after his 82nd birthday he was flail over by a bus just 2 weeks after the publication of his final novel bitter Eden he left a number of unpublished works, poems, plays, and novels.I will start now by analyzing the first stanza.In the first few lines of the first stanza, he renders an image of regulate six and mentions some of its characteristics here I will give a few examples, Small round hard sways click under my heels. In the first quotation he talks about that in district six, the governments havent taken much care to build roads, and this leads me to think, that it would be very disused to see any modern means of transport. Then it follows on seeding grasses thrust bearded seeds into trouser cuffs he explains that, no one is bothered to cut the wheat and when you walk the wheat is in your trouser cuffs.Moreover, I thought that these two words thrust and bearded gave an unwelcoming feel to the reader. cans trodden on This gives the reader a feel that district six is a place where no body cares, no body can be bothered to throw their litter in the hive away its just dumped on the radical. Tatamkhulu rounds the first stanza off by saying crunch in tall, purple flowering, amiable weeds after talking about the crude wheat and the litter on the floor, he then says that even though district six has all these problems he is used to this he sees them as friendly, and a part of him.The second stanza starts with the poet writing District six, no board says it is, but my feet know, and my pass, and the skin about my bones, and the soft laboring of my lungs To increase tension Afrika has used repetition, by starting the verse of by and three times. He demonstrates that even though there are no signs that say its district six, inside him he know it is, if you look in more detail at the quotation you realize that the poet is conveying the message that he has already been here my feet and my manpower and laboring of my lungs by saying that his feet know and his hands it proves that he has been here beforehand because his feet remember the clicking stones under his heels and his lungs remember the polluted atmosphere that was caused by litter cans trodden on.In the next two lines of the poem Afrika has used anger to express his feelings. And the hot, white, inward turning anger of my eyes by writing white with two commas on either side, from my experience by doing this the reader focuses more on this word white Afrika has on purpose done this to increase the tension and to make the read er think just how angry he is. Just like when you heat coal up, and it reaches its hottest, it turns white.Now I will start by analyzing the third stanzaBrash with glass, throw flaring like a flag it squats, in the grass and weedsIn this quotation, Tatamkhulu Afrika first describes the appearance of the building he says the word brash, this means to stand out too much and be energetic and boastful. Then it says name flaring like a flag it squats, in the grass and weeds this explains to the reader that this building and the name of it just sits there( squats), it doesnt belong their and doesnt fit in with the visual pestering in this case the grass and weeds that surround the building. Afrika has used two powerful describing verbs brash and squats this significantly increases the tension and makes the line dramatic.In these next few lines that I am going to poll, the poet describes his negative experiences. early port Jackson trees, impudently up market haute cuisine Guard at th e gate post whites only inn incipient port Jackson trees where shipped to Africa from America in the late 1970 when the district six was being colonized by whites. His negative experiences comes from the fact that there is a new market and a haute cuisine, however, there is a guard at the gate post making sure no black person comes in, whites only inn Afrika feels that blacks are being dejected in their own land.Fourth stanzaNo sign says it is but we know were we belongWhat is Afrikas attitude towards whites?Afrika does not express his feeling through anger he expresses them through sarcasm we can prove this because he writes we know were we belong he is referring to the black people, saying that the whites have their cuisine and new markets but we know were we belong. Moreover, Afrika deliberately uses a small stanza, this gives it exceptional flair which increases the tension of this stanza and attracts the reader attention.In this next stanza I will be studying in depth and showi ng Tatamkhulu negative experiences.His negative experience is the fact that there is that there is still segregation amidst whites and blacks and nothing has changed, no one has cared to do anything about it he feels that black are being dejected. We know this because he writes I press my nose to clear the panes, know, before I see them, there will be rugged ice white glass, linen falls, the single rose Afrika is trying to get the message that the white people are treated well, with extravagance and comfort linen falls, the single rose but then in the next verse he compares this to how blacks are treated working mans caf sells bunny chows.Take it with you, eat it at a plastic tables top, wipe your fingers on your jeans spit a little on the floor its in the bone. Afrika uses a juxtaposition I thought that this was a really clever technique because it showed the reader how vulgar and old fashioned the black mans caf was. Here he talks about that if you go into a white man s caf th ey have tissues at the table top and crushed ice in a white glass. However if you walk into a black mans caf then you eat on a plastic table top, wiping your hands on your jeans.The poet purposely compares the linen falls and the plastic table because this gives the reader a feel that just because of the color of their skin they get treated differently.In these next few pages I will be analyzing the similarities in the style, use of linguistic techniques, and the structure and layout of the poem.Tatamkhulu and Maya both have a lot of similarities regarding their background and childhood. I think their writing represents their childhood and how they have been treated and the terrible times they have been through. Because of this it make an enormous impact on the reader, now I will give an example. Maya writes a past thats rooted in main this is a very emotive line and represents Mayas background, she tells us that all these years she has been through this torment and her background p roves this. The word root shows that its not only her who has been tormented, but its her ancestors as well that have been through slavery and injustice. Just like the roots of a tree have different channels and can be very long, however they all do the same job.Then Tatamkhulu also shows this, but he does this in a slightly different but clever way and I did not see Maya use this in her poem, but if she did I think her poem would have been much more effective. He writes no board says it is but we know were we belong by saying the word we he is referring to the blacks and saying that even though there isnt any board we know were we are going. He uses sarcasm to get his point threw to the reader, and I think that its a really effective way.Another linguistic technique that I saw was repetition, which was used by both writers in an exceptional way to get through to the point. I noticed that Maya repeated the same word ill rise after the end of every stanza. I think that this had a big influence on each stanza because the reader pays more attention to the words that have been repeated, therefore taking into consideration the meanings of the word being repeated. In this case Maya was portraying the message that what ever they do whether its their bitter lies or the discrimination she will always rise above this, whatever happens and by repeating this at end of every stanza just shows how much courage, enthusiasm, and determination Maya Angelou has got.Repetition was also used by Tatamkhulu Afrika, however he used this in a slightly different style, and however I dont think that it was as effective as Angelous, this was because it wasnt repeated enough times for the reader to truly believe that he was fully committed to end the segregation between whites and blacks. The title of the poem was nothings changed and Tatamkhulu repeated this at the end, this showed the reader how frustrated he was the see that nothing could be done about the segregation between whites a nd blacks and that nothing had been done. By repeating this it did not only increase the effect it had on the stanza, but showed and represented the poets feelings. Tatamkhulu terminate his poem in more of an emotional way whereas Maya ended her poem in more of a forgiving and confident way.I will be looking at the style of the poem and the way they have used anger to portray the message and their similarities.I think that because the 2 poets used of anger this it had an immense impact at the reader because it made you think twice about what you were reading.I thought that both poets did this exceptionally well. In the poem nothings changed, Tatamkhulu Afrika showed his anger to represent his feelings he did this on many occasions, I will just analyze a few of these. Afrika writes in his poem the hot, white, inward turning anger of my eyes I thought this was an outstanding line which really did show the poets feelings. The word white really showed the reader how angry Afrika actual ly was, just like when you heat something up as it gets hotter the color starts to change and when its at its hottest then it turns white, I thought this was a really effective line which really engrossed the reader.One other example was when Tatamkhulu wrote hands burn for a stone, a flunk, to shiver down the glass here he is also conveying the message through anger and saying that his hands burn for a stone by this he means that inside him there is this precipitation to break the barrier between whites and blacks to shiver down the glass and the fact that he writes hands burn shows the longing he has inside him break up this segregation between whites and blacks and his desperation.Maya also used the same technique to convey her message, she writes you may write me down in history with your bitter twisted lies, you may trod me in very dirt but still like dust Ill rise. She uses harsh words bitter twisted ,however Maya uses the same rule but using a different style, she is pin po inting the reader. It seems as though she is blaming the reader, I thought this was a very good method of getting the point across because this made the reader guilty. More over, I think that if Afrika had used the same method his poem would have been more effective.Similarities in structure useFrom my opinion the structure of the stanza was really important because it increased the effect, which in return had a significant effect on the poem, here I will give a few examples Tatamkhulu Afrika used this technique a lot in his poem.In the seventh stanza of his poem Afrika purposely wrote a very small stanza, No board says it is, but we know were we belong I thought that this stanza had exceptional flair, it really caught my attention, Afrika deliberately did this because first of all it increases tension and he wanted people to know just how they are being treated and how difficult it is for them to live excluded from other part of the town. The word white has to commas on either sid e this is because he wants us to pay more attention to that word white.Then again Afrika used the same style again and the hot, white, inward turning anger of my eyes Afrika is showing us his anger. The word white has to commas on either side this is because he wants us to pay more attention to that word white.Now I will give another example in still ill rise.I thought Maya Angelou structured her poem exceptionally well. After every other stanza Maya wrote Ill rise, Ill rise Ill rise on separate lines. From my opinion I thought that by doing this it made the reader one hundred percent sure that Maya was absolutely committed, and it showed how desperate she is and how much courage she has, and how much commitment.DifferencesOne wording technique that I thought was brilliant was the fact that Tatamkhulu could show and describe the contrasts in the way blacks and whites were treated. I thought that this had an immense effect because it made the line emotional. One example of this was I press my nose to clear the panes, know before I see them there will be crushed ice white glass, linen falls, the single rose he shows the luxury and the quality that whites have been given, and the contrasts this with down the road working mans caf sells bunny chows, take it with you, eat it at a plastic tables top, wipe your fingers on your jeans, spit a little on the floor its in the bone he shows the difference in luxury between a white and blacks caf and because he did this I thought that it was very effective and created emotion and made the reader feel sorry for blacks. On the other hand I thought that if Maya did this her poem would have been a little more effective.One more thing that I spotted was that both writers ended their poem differently.These surprised me because they were both black and were fighting the same problem.Maya Angelou ended her poem with I am the dream and hope of the slave, I rise, I rise, I rise she showed a sense of achievement and hope, because by saying I rise three times showed the reader that she has her accomplished her mission of rising and ending above discrimination.On the other hand Tatamkhulu ended his in anger and irritation by saying hands burn for a stone, a bomb to shiver down the glass, nothings changed.Here he showed anger however their was a sense of hope, but by writing this, it told the reader that their was still discrimination between whites and blacks, But this made the reader feel emotional whereas Mayas was more a feel of accomplishment.To summarize, I thought that the two poems where exceptional, however, I enjoyed Maya Angelous most. This was because she goddamn the reader and by doing this it made the reader feel emotional. Although nothings changed was exceptional I still thought that Mayas was slightly better.

What does it to be a good leader Essay

What does it to be a reliable attracter? A attraction is that person who uses social, organizational, intellectual or such authority to command a chemical group, organization, or country (Cragg & Spurgeon, 2007). Generally, a leaders primary responsibility is to occupy the contribution of his/her subjects to accomplish a common task. Therefore, a leader should possess qualities that help him/her organize, command and realize the objective of the group or organization (Cragg & Spurgeon, 2007).A good leader needs to be both proactive and reactive (Gachte, Nosenzo, Renner & Sefton, 2008). This means that the leader should think several steps ahead of their subjects, so that they washbowl see problems before they arise and hence develop counter mechanisms for them. This also means that a good leader should be flexible and adaptable, so as to fit into whatever new unexpected or uncomfortable situations. The leader also needs to be initiative- he/she should be the source of ideas and plans that benefit the group (Gachte et al, 2008).Communication is one of the roughly important pillars in teamwork. Therefore, an exceptional leader is that who knows how to communicate effectively. This entails having good listening skills, asking the right questions as regularly as possible, netherstanding the subjects needs and remitting directions and ideas in the best way possible (Cragg & Spurgeon, 2007). A leader who not only values feedback, but also acts according to it is most likely to produce good results (Cragg & Spurgeon, 2007). A good leader also needs to display confidence and enthusiasm for his/her job, thus causing the people under to follow in the like spirit. That is an important form of non-verbal communication for a good leader.Although the leader is the most powerful member in a group, the effective leader acknowledges the inputs and efforts of each and every member (Gachte et al, 2008). A good leader will respect all his subjects and treat them without d iscrimination or favoritism. In the same line, a good leader has an open mind so that they can weigh and consider all possible fruitful options rase from junior members. In case a member of the team does well in achieving the groups mission, an exceptional leader will recognize and reward them, while motivating others to work even harder (Gachte et al, 2008).A common saying goes, a good leader leads by example. A good leader is not a boss, but a servant with the others. For this reason, a good leader should be resourceful and instrumental in the actual implementation of the organization or teams tasks (Wills, 1994). Therefore, the leader requires proper skills, training and education to match the duties and responsibilities of the respective leadership position. Moreover, an effective leader should be well-organized, punctual and always ready for his/her duties (Wills, 1994).Authority and leadership ar two qualities that are hardly separable. Although a good leader is a servant to o, it is impossible to lead without authority over other members of the organization. A good leader understands their power such as to delegate duties, to allow or deny certain actions by the members, to reward or penalize a member, and so forth (Wills, 1994). However, a leader should not use the authority vested upon them for their own good, but rather for the good of the whole organization.There are numerous other qualities that dispose a good leader, but the above are some of the basic good leadership traits. As discussed, good leadership revolves around personal gift effective teamwork- only that the leader should understand place at the top of an organization, group or team.ReferencesCragg, R., & Spurgeon, R. (2007). Competencies of a good leader. How To Succeed As A Leader. Ed. By Chambers R Etc. Redclif Publishing, Oxford-Newyork, US, 3340.Gachter, S., Nosenzo, D., Renner, E., & Sefton, M. (2008). Who makes a good leader? Social preferences and leading-by-example.Wills, G. (1994). What Makes a Good Leader?. The Atlantic Monthly, 273(4), 6380.Source catalogue

Pipeline Risk Analysis

Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 chance abstract for spin and Operation of Gas Pipeline formulates in Pakistan S. Mubin1 and G. Mubin2 1 2 Civil Engineering Department University of Engineering & Technology, Lahore, Pakistan Instructor, VTI, PVTC, Govt. of Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan Abstr travel In order to cater for its high energy demand, Pakistan is training to import natural gas by logical arguments from contiguous countries. For fully utilizing the imported gas, providing it to end customers, the infrastructure of gas pipeline needs to be developed.Therefore, huge investment has been done and proposed in this sector in coming future. Considering geological, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country, there is added essay of earthquake, landslides and outpourings. Due to current geopolitical situation there is a persistent threat of unrest and act of terrorist act in the country. Instable Goernment policies, high rate of inflation, rap id change in material prices be also important pretend agents.All these factors make the situation very(prenominal) conf apply in quantifying the put on the lineiness especi wholey for a honk in which the assay regard factor formulates exponentially in case of stake accompaniment. In this paper, most appropriate danger classification is make establish on technological, organizational, political, natural climatic, warrantor and environmental try factors. Effort has been made to device a simpler venture plowment modeology to analyze and manage risks of gas pipeline excogitate. In the proposed risk way model three-card monte Carlo simulation has been employ to recognise tiny risks.Keywords Oil and Gas pipelines risk of exposure Analysis and circumspection three-card monte Carlo simulation 1. Introduction Oil and gas sector is considered as back overdress of any countrys economy. In Pakistan industrialization, agriculture, transportation and even domestic utilization of the energy depends on oil colour and gas sector. Almost 80 % of indi bunst generation is oil and gas fannyd (50% gas and 30% oil) 1. For efficient energy production there is a need of efficient transportation musical arrangement (briny and distribution nedeucerk of pipeline) in the country, which is not sufficient to fulfill the countrys requirement.As per World Bank distinguish only 21% of the total creation of the country has access on natural gas. Due to the growing demands, pipeline network is expanding vigorously as during the last 10 grades the network of main and distribution gas pipeline was expanded by 85% 2. Currently Pakistan is meeting its gas demand by midland sources but by the grade 2011 the difference between countrys gas demand and supply will be 1. 2 Bcfd which will rise to 3. 1 Bcfd by the year 2015 and ultimately to 11. 1 Bcfd by the year 2025 3.To fill the gap between demands and supply Pakistan is computer programmening to import nat ural gas done pipeline from neighboring countries. Options of Turkmenistan, Iran and Qatar atomic number 18 available for gas import. Figure 1 shows that route of future cross country pipeline. In Pakistan, expected investment in pipeline turn is within range of 7 to10 billion dollars during the next 5-10 years 4. social system and characteristics of risk argon different in different mega chuck such(prenominal) as Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline ascribable to multi-party involvement from different geographic locations and regulatory structure 5.These mega intercommunicates whitethorn be termed as supranational be sicks defined as those where the owner and/or scramor may be from a country different to that of where the aim is situated commonly involve a wider range of issues than domestic projects and in effect, contemptible outside of ones usual business jurisdiction interjects many unknowns. Factors have-to doe withing owner investment decisions with international capit al facilities shtup be quite complex and may vary signifi empennagetly from region to region and project to project 18.Nature and stir of risk atomic number 18 different in different symbolizes of project intent cycle of pipeline projects. For most effective risk trouble it is recommended to plan, analyze and manage risk in all kinds of project life cycle i. e. initializing, purpose clearance and feasibility, design, social organisation and operating theater. Understanding the relationship between risk Corresponding Author S. Mubin (emailprotected edu. pk) try Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan anxiety and project phases for capital projects weed be a difficult task.For instance, both(prenominal) risks atomic number 18 minimum in twirl phase but atomic number 18 of vital importance in design phase such as earthquake. While dealing with risk management of international projects, which be oftenmagazines premiere or one- c ondemnation efforts and project progress and phasing decisions can be isolated from risk management. For most international projects, different participants be responsible for control of the various phases of a projects life cycle. In many cases, the project owner is largely responsible for program psycho abridgment, a thirdparty is often hired to design (engineering), construct, manage and control to meet the initial onstraints raft by the owner 6. slueor is hired to construct the project, which turns the results over to the owner for feats or production. Structuring projects with distinct phases and responsibilities can enlarge risk by isolating the project participants in such a manner that minimal attention is presumptuousness to overarching project concerns. Individual project participants become concerned with only their own project risks and either willingly or unwillingly try to transfer these risks to another(prenominal) project participants.To limit the background signal of this paper the discussion is confined to the risks fall outring during reflection and operation phase. Figure 1 The routes of future gas pipeline project in the region. The irresolution in undertaking construction of a pipeline project comes from many sources and often involves many participants in the project. Since each participant tries to minimize its own risk, the conflicts among various participants can be detrimental to the project. Systematic risk management of project activities is not fully recognized as valuable by practitioners in the construction industry.No common passel of risk exists since the owner, investor, designer, and constructor have differing project goals and objectives, and historicalally adverse relationships are common. In recent years, the concept of risk sharing/risk assignment contracts has gained credenza in pipeline design and construction. The distribution of risk between the client and contractor tends to overshadow effective mana gement strategies and investigations show that contactors and owners give minimal comity to risks outside the realm of their own concerns.The Federation Internationale des Ingenieurs Conseils (the International Federation of Consulting Engineers, FIDIC) and the International European Construction Federation (FIEC) publish two well-known and widely-accepted forms of conditions of contract for international construction projects (the Red and Yellow Books) that include provisions on the fair and equitable risk sharing between the owner and the contractor as well as risk responsibilities, liabilities, indemnity, and insurance 7.Considering technological point of view geographical conditions of Pakistan are very complex for the construction of pipeline projects. Almost 50 % of the total heavens of Pakistan is mountainous or semi-mountainous and in rest of the 23 Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 champaign there is wide network of rivers and canals (Figure 2). Therefore, for l inear structure the like pipelines there are extensive crossings and sometimes extreme target conditions are met, where degree of risk is increased as compare to normal conditions of construction.On the other hand, risks during operation of pipelines have different characteristics depending upon the strength and weakness of operating organization, topographical, geopolitical and climatic conditions of the country where project is executed. While dealing with natural risks, the geology and geographical characteristics of the regions must be thoroughly studied. For instance, the two continental plates i. e. Indian and Eurasian meet in Pakistan which highly equal on the eodynamics of the region which are the major source of earthquake 8. In monsoon period there is high probability of floods. Typical topography, steep slopes, high rainfall in a specific period (JuneAugust) and high temperature (melting glaciers) are the dominating factors for intensifying the frequency of floods in a particular year. Considering geopolitics of the regions there is a persistent threat of unrest and terrorism.The economic instability has added the problem due to that there is frequent change in economic parameters. All these are in fact the potential risks for any construction project especially oil and gas pipelines in which risk are multiplied many fold and there is exponential rise in damage in case of point of one or to a greater extent risks resulting huge human and environmental qualifyinges. Figure 2 Map of Pakistan showing important geological and geographical features of the country . miscellanea of stakes For effective risk of exposure Management, risk classification is of prime importance. There are many kinds of classifications have been made so far 10. In general, risks associated with pipeline projects may be classified as broadly hazard during Construction danger during Operation However, in operation, risk are slightly different, in which emphasis is gi ven to avoid those factor with hurdle safe and smooth operation/functioning of pipeline.Usually, in mega projects such as cross country organic structure pipelines investment risk are considered most import followed by the security risk. More precisely, risk during construction and operation of oil and gas pipelines can be divided into pastime categories ( skirt 1) The type and causes of risk in each class are different. Risks during construction are time susceptible and the probability of occurrence of different risk are time dependent, more is the duration of project higher are the probabilities.These are generally related to execution of work processes, material availability, manpower, finances (budget), time frame, accidental, good and environmental. 24 i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. political risk Socio- scotch risk Technical risk Organizational risk Natural catastrophic risk Financial risk (investment risk) Safety and security risk Environment risk Risk Analysis for Cons truction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table1 Risk Classifications No 1. Category Risk Political risks Unstable Govt. olicies sort in economic parameters Breach in contractual relationship Unrealistic comprise baseline and financial delay Inefficient communicating Accident during construction or operation Earthquake Risk Factors Change in labour policy Rise in inflation and material prices sledding of venture or partnership Exchange rate risk and rise in interest rate Inefficient and conventional technologies Not use of HSE policies and sample floods abuse to surrounding environment Delay in flatterys from regulatory bodies Seasonal unavailability of labour Unrealistic SWOT analysis Strikes, lockout, lawlessness Change in economic policies and tax system Fine or compensation 2. Socio-economical risks Organizational risks 3. 4. Investment risk Disinvestment from market Insufficient resources and equipment Terrorism or war bulletproof credit policy Qualit y risk and rework Human error (Damage or leaving of machine or human resource) Weather conditions e. g. humidity, precipitation Damage to ecology and wildlife 5. Technological risk 6. Security risk 7. Natural and climatic risk Landslide, hurricanes Depletion of hydrocarbon resources 8. Damage to Environmental risk natural resources 2. 1 Political Risk The effect of countrys policies on the project directly impact on project success or failure.During the policy making process, technical factors are usually ignored and policies may be correct in a way that operation of a project may not be economical or trade offing. This factor is also important in unstable governments, where there is more risk of change of economic, petroleum or labor policies, which are directly related to the pipeline projects. Delays can occur due to laborious and detailed procedure for approval from public safety rule department, environmental regulation agencies and oil and gas regulatory bodies. Public heal th, safety and environmental concern are more important in the western countries as compare to ontogenesis countries like Pakistan. Policy and political risks are more concerned in international project risks, such as cross border pipeline projects.In international projects these risks 25 are sometimes overlooked or assessed haphazardly. Such risks include war, civil war, terrorism, expropriation, inability to transfer currency across borders, and trade credit defaults by abroad or domestic customers 6. Although risks such as civil unrest and economic stability are typically outside the kitchen range, understanding and dealing with these risks are critical for companies working internationally. A 2001 study by AON Trade Credit discovered that, in the Fortune 1000, only about 26 percent of companies had in place systematic and consistent methodologies to assess political risks 6. 2. 2 Socio-economical riskSocio-economical conditions further reinforced the climate of uncertainty wit h high inflation and interest rates. The deregulation of financial institutions has also generated unanticipated problems related to the financing of construction. These risks can be forecasted and linked with the economic indicators of the country. For instance, In Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Pakistan, the economic indicators are tending to grow careless(predicate) of the political instability in the country. The GDP of the country was 8. 4% prior to 2005 earthquake, which declined down to GDP 5. 6 or less currently. Earthquake and floods during the last two year costed government approximately $5. 4 B and expected to spend more $3. 6bn till 2010.Overall there is growth in the market and potential for foreign investment in construction sector 1. 2. 3 Technical risk The risks related to technological problems are familiar to the design/construct professions which have some degree of control over this category. However, because of rapid advances in new technologies wh ich record new problems to designers and constructors, technological risk has become greater in many instances. authoritative design assumptions which have served the professions well in the past may become obsolete in present time. Site conditions, particularly subsurface conditions which always present some degree of uncertainty, can create an even greater degree of uncertainty during construction.Because construction procedures may not have been fully anticipated, the design may have to be modified after construction has begun. An example of facilities which have encountered such uncertainty is the nuclear power plant, and many owners, designers and contractors have suffered for undertaking such projects. There is a need of technological advancement to overcome this risk. statistics, geological surveys, sub surface investigation through various method has given rise to the development of such techniques which can not only quantify frequency of occurring of such phenomenon in a particular region but also their impact and demolition. Northern areas of Pakistan are considered in high seismic zone 8 particularly after incidence of 8th Oct. 005 earthquake, in which more than 86000 people died and one million got injured and 3 million became homeless, this factor is highly considered in planning, feasibility, design and construction of the any construction project in the region 9. The major causal agent is the plate tectonic motion in Himalaya, northern part of Pakistan. This plate tectonic motion is due to the uplift of Euro Asian plate by Indian plate (two plates are meeting in Pakistan) 2. 6 Investment risk Pipelines are mega project. A lot of funding is required for the cessation and safe operation of pipelines. Investment has been always a prime risk in construction project due to multi party involvement.But especially for the international pipeline project, this is always risk of payback and trade offing, because of the bilateral and diplomatic relati onships. 2. 7 Safety and security risk In a broader sense, safety and security risks include factors due to that loss or damage of resources (manpower, machinery and financial resources) or facilities (pipeline, pipeline crossing, gas compressor station) can occur during construction or operation phase of a pipeline. It is very often that loss of work time, machinery and manpower occur due to accident on side because of the negligence of some worker. These risks involve all activitys (accident, malfunctioning, terrorism, war etc. due to that loss of resources nd production of pipeline can occur. These risks are more likely to occur during operation phase however, these can be occurring in construction stage as well. To cater these risk to occur Health safety policy is streng then so that to minimize on-site and offsite accidents during construction. It is generally accepted that the pipeline are the target in terrorists attacks and wars. For, instance, history prevails that in las t five years the total terrorist attacks made on the pipelines in Pakistan were 103. It may be the result of internal political situation of the country but anywhere in the world this factor of risk is considered to be very important.For safe operations, state of the art methodology and technology has been developed which ensure safe exploitation of pipeline, which include remote sensing, Geographical Information System (GIS) and mapping techniques, Light detection and ranging (LIDAR), Global localisation system (GPS), data acquisition (SCADA) and In-line inspection (ILI) etc. 26 2. 4 Organizational risk The risks related to organization and organizational relationships may appear to be unnecessary but are quite real. Strained relationships may develop between various organizations involved in the design/construct process. When problems occur, discussions often pump on responsibilities rather than project needs at a time when the focus should be on solving the problems.Cooperation and communication between the parties are demoralized for fear of the come out up of impending litigation. This barrier to communication results from the illconceived notion that uncertainties resulting from technological problems can be eliminated by appropriate contract terms. The net result has been an increase in the costs of constructed facilities. 2. 5 Natural catastrophic risk Natural catastrophic risks are those on which there is no control. They are usually the act of God and can occur at anytime and anywhere. Earthquake, floods, hurricanes are the common examples of these risks. However, due to the development of the science and technology in the field of simulation and modeling,Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan 2. 8 Environmental risk Environmental concerns and awareness is increasing everywhere. The worldwide environmental protection movement has contributed to the uncertainty for construction because of the inability to know what will be required and how long it will take to obtain approval from the regulatory agencies. This delay in approval practically influence on total costs of the project. Public safety regulations have similar effects. The situation constantly change guidelines for engineers, constructors and owners, as projects move through the stages of planning to construction due to the change in govt. policies.These moving targets add a significant new dimension of uncertainty which can make it intimately im contingent to schedule and complete work at budgeted cost . Risk management reduces the impact of negative risks and enhances positive risk to make opportunities. However, limiting our oscilloscope in this section to negative risks, risk management may be defined as a method to reduce the consequences of negative events (risk) tend to occur during construction and operation of pipeline by developing mechanisms and strategies (risk transfer, risk reduction, risk distribution, avoid ance, risk enhancement) compatible to the system environment in which project is executed. The strategy of risk management is based on risk analysis results for a particular project.According to Project Management give (PMI) approach of risk management 11 the process includes 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Risk management planning Risk designation Qualitative risk analysis Quantitative risk analysis Risk reduction strategies 3. Risk Management do by Generally risk analysis and management had not been applied in construction industry and especially in pipeline projects. It is comparatively new area for pipeline projects, which is rapidly advancing due to the involvement of non native client or contractor. However, the concept of risk analysis and management is getting fame in pipeline project due to involvement of multinational contractor/organizations.Basically risk management deals with management of positive and negative events which occurs during realization of projects. 3. 1 Risk management planning Risk management process (PMI approach) starts with the planning of risk management, which includes a detailed risk management planning. In Risk management planning the proposed scarper of action for risk analysis is set. The input, output and process are shown in the table 2. Table 2 Process showing Risk Management Planning 19 remark Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Planning meeting and analysis Risk Management Plan Planning course of action Process push through put 3. 2 Risk recognition processFor effective risk analysis and management the identification of risk is very important carefully such that no important factor is left which can negatively impact on the project. The risk indemnification process input and output are shown in table 3, which include the following Information Gathering Techniques Examples of information gathering techniques used in identifying risk can include brai nstorming, Delphi techniques, interviewing, root cause identification and SWOT (Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) 27 analysis. Brainstorming is important data gathering technique for risk identification in which a group of team members or subject-matter experts (design, construction, purchase, finance etc) together identify expected risks.Delphi is another technique of information gathering used as a way to reach a consensus of experts on a subject. Experts on the subject participate in this technique anonymously. A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas Project Documentation Reviews For risk identification project documentation are reviewed, including plans, assumptions, prior project files, and other information. The quality of the plans, as well as Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 congruity between those plans and with the project requirements and assumptions, can be indicators of risk in the project. Assumptions Analysis Every pipeline proj ect is conceived and developed based on a set of hypotheses, scenarios, or assumptions.Assumptions analysis is a tool that explores the validity of assumptions as they apply to the project. It identifies risks to the project from in accuracy, inconsistency, or incompleteness of assumptions. Table 3 Process of Risk Identification remark Organizational environmental factor Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Checklist Analysis Risk identification checklists can be developed based on historical information and knowledge that has been accumulated from previous similar projects and from other sources of information. The lowest level of the RBS can also be used as a risk checklist.Diagramming techniques Some Risk diagramming techniques may also be used for risk identification which includes cause-and-effect diagrams, system or process range charts and influence diagrams. Process Information collection Documentation revie w Assumption analysis Checklist analysis Diagramming techniques Out put Risk Register 3. 3 Qualitative risk analysis There are several theories to quantify risks 12, 17. legion(predicate) different risk formulae exist, but perhaps the most widely accepted formula for risk quantification is Rate of Occurrence i. e. , probability multiplied by the dissemble of event equal to Risk physique, mathematically expressed in equation 7. The inputs and output of qualitative risk analysis process is shown in table-4.PMI defined set of probability and impact factor can be used in risk analysis given in Table 5. However, the selection of one of the grade of P for a particle risk from table 5, is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial results. The objective is to prioritize risk based on their probability and impact estimate. probability and extend to matrix is used to visualize the impact of risk from least to maximum possibility. Another method called Risk Data Quality Assessment is used which requires accurate and unbiased data Analysis of the quality of risk data is a technique to label the degree to which the data about risks is useful for risk management.It involves examining the degree to which the risk is understood. Risks to the project can be categorized by sources of risk (e. g. , victimisation the RBS), the area of the project strickleed (e. g. , using the Work Breakdown Structure), or other useful category (e. g. , project phase) to determine areas of the project most exposed to the effects of uncertainty. Table 4 Process showing Qualitative risk analysis 19 Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Risk probability and impact assessment Probability and Impact matrix Risk data quality assessment Risk categorization Risk Register (updates) Out put 28Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Table 5 Standard determine of frequency of occurrence and Impact factors 11 Possibility of occurrence very high chance High chance great chance Possible Likely Unlikely Probability (P) 90 % 75% 60% 45% 30% 15% Type and level of risk Impact When maximum impact on scope, time and cost High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost High impact on time, medium impact on scope and lesser impact on cost When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope Impact Factor (I) 0. 9 0. 6 0. 3 0. 1 3. 4 Quantitative risk analysisFor quantitative risk analysis any of the following method may be used as illustrated in Table 6. incorporates probabilities and the costs or rewards of each logical path of events and future decisions, and uses expected monetary measure out analysis to help the organization identify the relative entertains of alternate actions. See also expected monetary value analysis. Sensitivity analysis Sensitivity analysis helps to d etermine which risks have the most potential impact on the project. It examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being examined when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline value.One typical display of sensitivity analysis is tornado diagram, which is useful for comparing relative importance of variables that have a high degree of uncertainty to those that are more stable. Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Analysis It is a statistical technique that works the expected outcome of future scenarios in monetary form that may or may not happen. Modeling and simulation Modeling and simulation is recommended for cost and schedule risk analysis because it is more powerful and less subject to misappropriation than expected monetary value analysis. Simulation uses a model that translates the uncertainties specified at a detailed level of the project into their potential impact on project objectives. 3. 5 Risk eduction strategies Ri sk present may be obtained from risk management procedure defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) 11, which is a document containing the results of the qualitative risk analysis and quantitative risk analysis. On the basis of risk analysis risk reducing strategy is set which is also given in risk register. The risk register in that way, presents all related information of identified risks including description, category, cause, probability of occurring, impact(s), risk number and the possible strategy set for each risk. Decision Tree The decision tree is a diagram that describes a decision under consideration and the implications of choosing one or another of the available alternatives. It is used when some future scenarios or outcomes of actions are uncertain.It Table 6 Process showing Quantitative risk analysis 19 Input Organizational process of assets Project scope management Project management plan Risk Management plan Risk Register Process Out put Quantitative risk analy sis ( Sensitivity analysis, Decision Tree, Modeling and Simulation, Expected Monetary Value, EMV) 29 Risk Register (updates) Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 The common course of action of the any organization or participant (consultant, contractor, client or owner) participating in the construction process of oil and gas pipeline can adopt one or combination of course of action given below, depending upon the type of project, location and circumstances.Distribution of risk between participants of the project can be made by 1. Risk Transfer (insurance, contracts) 2. Contingency Budget 3. Risk mitigation (problem solving and root cause analysis) 4. Risk avoidance 4. Development of Risk Management Model for Pipeline Construction Projects Project Management Institute (PMI) approach of risk analysis and management may be complicated and laborious for construction project like pipeline. Therefore a model of risk analysis and management is developed which simplifies the process and produce more potential results with the implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (Figure 3). Project document review Market Analysis Client/Contractor reviewGeopolitical analysis and review 2. Risk Classification Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) 3. Risk probability and impact factor Data collection (Authentic source) Data processing (Normal, Beta, Gamma, Log, etc distribution) Calculation of oftenness (P) and Impact factor (I) 4. Risk analysis 5. Monte Carlo Simulation Identification of critical risk 6. Risk management strategy Risk Transfer (Contract, insurance) Risk Distribution (Between parties) Risk Mitigation (Eliminating risk causes) Risk Avoidance 7. Risk monitoring process Documentation Monitoring process and results Check and make changes Data Bank Figure3 Risk Management Model for pipelines construction project. 30Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan STEP-1 Model starts with identification and classification of risks consider ing the type of construction project. Degree and frequency of risk varies from trunk pipeline to distribution line. in addition it gives suitable approach for both the major parties i. e. Owner (client) and the Contractor. Before identifying the risk the market review, client/contractor capability and geopolitical conditions of the region are analyzed where project is expected to be executed. The types of risk are also depending upon the type of contractual relationship between the owner and constructing firm. In different ypes of contract (Build-Operate and Transfer, Engineering-Purchase and Construction, Figure, Turnkey contracts, Labour contract, etc) between the owner and constructing body the level and intensity of risk differs 13. STEP-2 On the basis of risk identification risk are categorized and Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) is made as shown in Figure 4. Risk identification is the most important thing followed by the probability and impact computations in whole risk analys is process. Figure 4 Risk Breakdown Structure of gas pipeline project STEP-3 Risk probability assessment investigates the likelihood that each specific risk will occur. Risk impact assessment investigates the potential effect on a project objective such as time, cost, scope, or quality.The selection of PMI defined the determine of probability and impact factor given in Table 5 is based on expert judgment which may produce controversial results. For instance, it may be difficult some time to distinguish the possibility from Higher run a risk to Greater Chance for that an expert can use 60% probability value however, another use 45%. In that way some negligible risk may be superseded to other important risk. Risk impact factor defined by Project Management Institute (PMI) are used in this study which range from 0,1 to 0. 9 depending upon the type and impact of event to the project. For risk Monte Carlo Simulation the precise value of probabilities are required.Therefore, probability and impact of each risk may be calculated based on historic data. In this 31 case we the values of probability of different risks are calculated by using different probability distribution curves, however, when the historical data is not available, the probability is judged by experts opinion (from SNGPL) or the direct value of probability for that particular risk published by the related government agency. It is very important to define the probability distribution of a risk on the basis of that the frequency of occurrence is calculated. It is observed that the probability distribution of different risk appearing in different stages of project life cycle is different.Therefore, during calculation of probability of each risk the characteristic of risk must be considered to find the appropriate distribution to get the more precise results. For example, figure 5 shows the 10 year data of flood 21 depicts that the a normal curve is best suited to find the probability of a given volume /time called as the flood flow may be calculated using Equation 1,2 and 3 14. Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Figure 5 Graphical representation of flood data 1990-2001 where P probability of occurrence Z area under normal curves for a given value X (the probability of that area can be found out from charts) ? mean value of the 10 year data of river flows. ? standard deviation of the mean data.On the basis of historical data, obtained from IRSA, the probability of river flow more than 400 (MAF) (which is termed as flood flow) through river system of Pakistan (sum of river flow at a time on Mangla and Terbela) is calculated by using measured. Similarly other risks are also quantified based on the characteristic of data distribution curve. For instance, for earthquakes we are interested to find the probability of occurrence earthquake more than 5. 5 Richer Scale. According to construction codes, the earthquake between 3. 5-5. 4 Richer Scale is often felt, but rarely caus es damage. A value of 5. 5 Richer Scale is selected to calculate probability of 32 occurrence under assumption that almost slight damage to well designed buildings can caused major damage to poorly constructed buildings over small regions.Pipelines can go under slight damage of residual. For a random variable X (x 0 and elsewhere i. e. x 0 the value of probability is zero) have an exponential distribution with parameter ? then probability distribution is defined as in equation (4), (5) and (6) 14. Therefore either exponential or gamma distribution (with m =1) may be used for probability calculation of earthquake at a given value (in Richer Scale) using the historical data 9, as shown in the Figure 6. where P probability of occurrence ? mean value of historic data ? standard deviation of the historic data e 2. 718282 VAR is the variance at any value X. For 5. Richer Scale earthquake ? = 1 ? P (X 5. 5) = ? 1. e 1*5. 5 = 0. 000408 5. 5 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operati on of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Frequency of occurrence 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0,000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Earthquake Intensity (Richer scale) Figure 6 Graphical representation 45 year earthquake data STEP-4 On the basis of probability values for each risk a risk register (table 7) may be made which presents quantitative risk analysis for each risk. PMI defined impact factor can be used which clear cut defines the type and condition of risk impact. On the basis of this formula below qualitative risk analysis is made.The following relationship is used for risk analysis 11 RN = P x I RN Risk Number P Probability of occurrence I Impact factor of risk For parameters the data is not available expert judgment can be used for probability assessment. Risk Number (RN) can be found for all risk identified in Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS). Manually it can be identified critical risk having larger risk number, RN based on the one point calculation. However, the mor e authentic way to identify the critical risks associated to pipeline project is Monte Carlo Simulation approach which is discussed in next step. STEP 5 Monte Carlo simulation is a widely used computational method for generating probability distributions of variables that depend on other variables or parameters represented as probability distributions.Although Monte Carlo simulation has been used since the 1940s, development of computer technology has made it kindly and attractive for many new applications 15. That availability has coincided with increasing dissatisfaction with the deterministic or point estimate calculations typically used in quantitative risk assessment as a result, Monte Carlo simulation is rapidly gaining popularity. Monte Carlo simulation, which is a mathematical method used in risk analysis to approximate the distribution of potential results based on probabilistic 33 (7) inputs would involve many calculations of the intake rate rather than a single calculati on for each calculation, the computation would use a value for each input parameter randomly selected from the probability density function for that variable 16.Each simulation is generated by randomly wrench a sample value for each input variable from its defined probability distribution, e. g. uniform, normal, lognormal, triangular, beta, etc. These input sample values are then used to calculate the results, i. e. total project duration, total project cost, project finish time. The inputs can be task duration, cost, start and finish time, etc. This procedure is then repeated until the probability distributions are sufficiently well represented to achieve the desired level of accuracy. They are used to calculate the critical path, slack values, etc. Monte Carlo simulations have been proven an effective methodology for the analysis of project schedule with uncertainties.In Monte Carlo simulation any desired level of mathematical accuracy can be achieved by increasing the number of iterations. Risks are probable entities, it is possible that all the risk accrued at the same time during project execution and may be no identified risk appears. Therefore, it is desired to use Monte Carlo simulation technique to find the most critical and probable risk which can appear in the pipeline project. Risk analysis has been made by using program Riskyproject 1. 3. 3 20 which is an advanced project management software with integrated risk analysis. RiskyProject is used for planning, scheduling, quantitative risk analysis, and performance measurement of projects with multiple risks and uncertainties.RiskyProject determines which parameters will have the most effect on the project duration, cost, and finish time with and without risks, crucial tasks, critical risks, and success rate. RiskyProject helps to optimize the course of the project track project performance and risk together and analyze the affect of mitigation efforts 22. On the basis of Monte Carlo simulation criti cal risks are Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Table 7 Risk input in risk register and their quantitative analysis for pre-defined risks Risk Identification and Categorization Cat. Risk 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 1. 2. Risk Register Risk Analysis Freq. Risk reducing StrategyRanking 27 3 23 25 8 14 29 1 12 21 16 8 9 12 4 5 3 2 24 18 19 11 10 5 20 11 12 5 15 3 12 2 6 8 Risk Avoidance Risk Risk Transfer Mitigation Remarks Risk Delay in approvals from regulatory bodies Unstable Government policies Change in regulations Change in labor policy Change in petroleum policy Political instability Lawlessness, strikes, lockouts Change in economic parameters Hike in material prices Unavailability of skilled laborers Change in project scope Insufficient technology Completion of construction not on time Not realistic planning of resources and volume of work Request for increase in project budget In sufficient specialist and engineers Strains in co ntractual relationships Financial delays Disinvestment from the market Loss ofPartnership Change in credit policy (increase interest rate) Design not completed in time Unexpected obstacle on site (dewatering, rock excavation) Slow communication between team members War Terrorism Accident on site during construction Loss of human life Earthquake Flood Landslides Unexpended weather condition, precipitation wind storms Damage to environment Degradation of natural resources (P) 5,15% 8% 2,10% 2,90% 5% 4% 4,50% 8,10% 8,03% 6,80% 3,9 % 10% 9,50% 8,10% 13,13 % 6,50% 5,30% 6. 1 % 4,40% 3,01% 5,10% 7,80% 7,80% 5,90% 0,10% 2,20% 2% 3,90% 0,04% 3,07% 2,1 % 4,72% 3,75% 1,10% Impact (I) 0,32 0,6 4 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,3 0,9 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,1 1Risk Number 1,55% 4,80% 1,89% 1,74% 3,00% 2,40% 1,35% 7,29% 2,41% 2,04% 2,34% 3,00% 2,88% 2,43% 3,94% 3,90% 4,77% 5,49% 0,44% 1,81% 1,53% 2,34% 2,34% 3,54% 0,09% 1,98% 1,80% 2,34% 0,12% 2,76% 0,63% 2,82% 2,25% 0,66% E?5 E? E? GO E? E? E? 6 3 GO, EO SA 7 GO E? EO EO EO SA GO SA EO EO SA EO SA EO EO EO SA SA SA SA SA SA SA GO GO 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,6 0,9 0,9 0,3 0,6 0,6 0,6 0. 1- When high impact on cost of the project, medium impact on time and lesser impact on scope. 0. 3- High impact on time, medium impact on scope and lesser impact on cost. 3. 0. 6- High impact on scope, medium impact on time and lesser impact on cost. 4. 0. 9- When maximum impact on scope, time and cost. 5.EO- Frequency of risk is based on experts opinion. 6. GO- Frequency of risk is based on statistic available by relevant Government organization. 7. SA- Frequency of risk is based on statistical analysis. 34 Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Figure-7(a) Monte Carlo Simulation conducted for risk analysis of Muree Rawat gas pipeline project presents most probable cost and duration to complete project. It also presents most probable date of completion of the project considering all i dentified risks. Figure-7(b) Result obtained from simulation identifying most critical risk impacting scope, duration and cost Muree Rawat gas pipeline project dentified impacting on scope, cost and duration of project Figure 7 (a) and (b). Strategy for risk management is set accordingly. The following analysis and results was produced by the programme 35 Sensitivity analysis Success rate of completion Critical risks affecting cost Critical risks affecting duration of project Pak. J. Engg. & Appl. Sci. Vol. 2 Jan 2008 Critical activities. Most probable duration Most probable cost of the project Most probable date of completion of project. STEP 6 On the basis of critical risk identification by Monte Carlo simulation, risk reduction strategy is set, which may be risk transfer, mitigation, avoidance, distribution and etc.During construction process the impact of risk can be lowered by changing the schedule of construction for example 95% of probability of flood occurrence is in period from June to August. In flood, the area comes under water and may not be possible to continue the construction process. Therefore, schedule may be set in a way that ground related activities should be set accordingly to avoid the occurrence. STEP 7 The results or set methodology for risk management must be periodically monitored and checked for improvement. Lesson learned and recommendation should be send to Data Bank which may be useful for risk analysis and management of another pipeline project of similar nature. organizational capacity for design, construction and operation. Organizational or technological risk like insufficient resource planning or project management, change in scope etc can be eliminated by improving the process or application of new technologies available in this field. New state of the art technologies are stabilising in managing change at any stage of the project. Historical data of river flows shows that the flood has probability of 95% of occurrence be tween June and August. This risk can be minimized during construction phase by rearranging the construction schedule. Other risks like landslides are associated with floods, rain fall or earthquakes. Earthquake risk during construction phase depends on the length of execution of project and only impact on the construction cost of the project. As the duration of the execution increases probability of occurrence of risk also increase.However, in operation phase this risk must be eliminated by practicing design based on earthquake/horizontal forces. 5. Conclusion and Recommendations Probability of risk occurrence P comes out to be the function of project duration T both during construction and operation phase. However Intensity of destruction or Impact is a function of enterprise internal and external environment. Three most critical tasks calculated by Risky Project are Excavation, Transportation of Material and Stringing of pipelines. The most critical risks come out to be change in economic parameters, Change in design and scope, earthquake and terrorism during construction and operation of gas pipelines.Considering all risks the probable values to project completion calculated by Risky project is 460 days however the base project duration is 390 days. Similarly the project cost without risks is 350,00,000 however, with risks it is 391,00,000. On the basis of that contingency budget of project can be formulated to cater the risk. The inessential risks like change in material prices, construction not finished in time or budget and design not in time can be reduced or transferred to the other party or organization by contract. However SNGPL is designing, constructing and operating gas pipelines so risk can be eliminated by strengthening the internal Acknowledgement Mr. Pervair, Senior General Manager and Engr.Waqar Ashraf, Deputy General Manager (Projects), SNGPL are acknowledged for their contribution and buy at in providing data and relevant material. RE FERENCE 1 Economic Survey of Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, Chapter 15, Energy Sector of Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan. (2006), 219-225. 2 Annual Report Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL), Lahore, Pakistan (2006), 511. 3 Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) Pipeline Pre-feasibility state by Hagler Bailly Pakistan. Islamabad, Pakistan, (2006), 111-119. 4 Syed Hassan Nawab Proc. 3rd Pakistan oil & gas conference, Islamabad, Pakistan, (2007), 136-145 5 Amberish K. D. A pipeline through Pakistan, Dehli, India (2004), 131-137. 6 John W. , Edward G. International Project Risk Assessment Methods, Procedures, and Critical 36Risk Analysis for Construction and Operation of Gas pipeline Projects in Pakistan Factors (Center Construction Industry Studies, Report No. 31, The University of Texas at Austin) Austin, Texas. (2003), 41-49. 7 FIDIC Conditions of contract for construction. (Multilateral Development Bank Harmonized Edition). Geneva, Switzerland. (2005), 217-229. 8 Armbruster J. inte rrogation Journal, 83(1978) 8891. 9 Mahdi S. , Muhammad S. Proc. 1st International Conference on Earthquake Engineering (ICCE), Lahore, Pakistan, (2006), 177-182. 10 DAppolonia E. Proc. of 9th International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering,Tokyo, Japan, 4(1979), 410-414. 11 PMBOK need A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, 3rd Edition, PA, USA, (2004), 237-264. 12 Peter C. , Robert P. Proc. 2nd International Deepwater Pipeline Technology Conference. London, UK, (1999), 291-297. 13 Conditions of Contract for EPC/Turnkey Projects, Guidance for the preparation of the particular Conditions Forms of Tender, Contract Agreement and Dispute Adjudication Agreement, USA, (1999), 4-12. 14 Sher Muhammad Ch. Introduction to statistical theory, Ilmi Kitab Khana, Urdu Bazar, Lahore, Pakistan, 6th Ed, (1996), 361-370. 15 Susan R. P. Proc. Int. Conference on Risk Assessment and Policy Association meeting in Alexandria, Virginia, (1997), 245-255. 16 Brenda M cCabe Proc. Int.Conference on Simulation, Toronto, Canada, (2003), 15611565. 17 twat R. , Meredith, Samuel J. , Mantel Jr. Project Management, 5th Ed, NJ, USA, (2002), 191105. 18 Wells Louis, Gleason Eric Harvard Business Review Journal, 73(5)(1995) 44-54. 19 CPM 128 Project Management Boot Camp, (2006), 11. 1-11. 30. 20 www. intaver. com/accessed on 10th March, 2007 21 Annual Flood Report Ministry of Water and Power, Islamabad, Pakistan, (2006), 1-5 also available online on http//www. pakistan. gov. pk/ministries/index. jsp ? MinID=24=291. 22 Users Guide to RiskyProject Professional 1. 3, Intavar Institute Inc. , USA, (2006), 31-38. 37

To What Extent Does the Impact of World War I Explain the Outbreak of the Two Revolutions in 1917 ?

To what extent does the impact of creative activity War I explain the eructation of the cardinal revolutions in 1917 ? To a certain extent, the First World War was a major contributing grammatical constituent to the two revolutions that took place in 1917, the February and October Revolution. The state of state of fight worsened the issues that already existed in Russia and excessively highlighted the lack of leadershiphip shown by the Tsar and the Provisional Government set up after the February Revolution and also the Tsars military command over the army during the war.However, World War One was not the only reason for the revolutions taking place and acted as a tipping factor from the already undergoing social, political and economical problems plaguing Russia which conduct to the f each of the Tsar and the Provisional Government. The war was a massive mistake for Russia, it gained success support at get-go from the Russian public until they started to lose battles.afte r defeats in 1915 the poor attempt at retreating and the number of those wounded the high command and the Tsar were blamed which led to Nicholas II making one of his biggest mistakes ever whilst in his reign, Tsar Nicholas II took the advice of Grigori Rasputin, a peasant who was friends with the royal family from trying to heal their son of haemophilia, and went and led the Russian war effort. The tsar had a slender knowledge ab let out war which led to him putting himself in a vulnerable position as he would now have to make all in all correct decisions or would be blamed by the deal back home for any wrong decisions.Joe Gaucci, a historian, backs up this claim and states that the Tsars decision proved disastrous as the government became increasingly chaotic. Over 200,000 men were lost in the war and with 15 million peasants pulled from the farms the food shortage became a larger problem. The army started to lose faith in the Tsar, this was a vital for the revolution as they sto pped stab on the rioters and leading to the revolution continuing.The war also led to the tweakfall of the provisionary government. After the Tsar leaving his role, the public called for peace and for Russia to leave the war. The provisional government tried to regain the support of the army and the Russian public by making the army launch the June offensive, with the July offensive in the first two weeks being able to exploit the poor morale of the Austrian Army were then pushed back because of soldiers refusing to obey order thus overriding the early success.After the Germans counter-attacked leaving thousands of soldiers deserted the army suffered a collapse. Not only did this show how poorly the Russian army was organised, equipped and mentally able to win the war but it also showed the Provisional Governments disregard of listening to the publics cries to stop the war. During the first revolution the political issues were a large factor for it to happen. With the Tsar leaving the nation to command the army, the tsaritsa was left in charge.This was a poor decision at first because the Tsarina was German and many people saw her as either a spy for Germany or having split allegiances so would make poor decisions and not consider what was best for Russia. The government became very unstable with the Tsarina in charge as she continually kept changing the ministers especially if they did not want to make decisions directed by the Man of God.On top of this the Tsarina took advice from a peasant called Rasputin, who was first Tsars Nicholas IIs sons doctor to try and cure his haemophilia. Rasputin was a advisor to the Tsarina and many speculated having an mathematical function with her, while Tsarina was firing ministers he persuaded her to induct ministers, who were corrupt, into the high court. For the second revolution and the Provisional Government it was Lenin and the Bolsheviks who were the main political issue.Lenin knew the government was weak and pu blished his April theses which highlighted two areas All power to the Soviets and Peace, Bread, Land which also follows the saying Bread and Circuses which is the common metaphor to explain the needs to keep the public of a ground happy. After this in July the Bolsheviks supposedly were the brains behind the July Days which almost lead to a revolution, instead it lead to the Provisional Government arresting main leaders of the Bolsheviks such as Trotsky, however the bolsheivik party was still allowed to run.The biggest provisional government mistake was during the Kornilov affair in which the bolsheivks were released from prison, given guns and told to fight, in the end they were not indispensable but were seen as the heroes of the day. The provisional Governments poor handling of the Bolsheiviks could also lead to someone believing that politics was the reason for the Revolutions. Both of the political factors for the revolutions breaking out could be attributed to World War I Ec onomic Problems During both revolutions Russia was struggling with economic problems.The three main factors which affected the economy of Russia was the Inflation, Food shortages and the affect of industrial enterprise in the cities. Inflation occurred mainly because of the Governments spending which increased by 400% between August 1914 and March 1917, this would have occurred because of the war but affected the people of Russia as inflation increased as they kept printing more money, taxes then slumped as sale of alcohol was banned which contributed a large bosom of taxes as the government possessed a monopoly on the sale of vodka.When the war started in 1914 15 million peasants were called up to aid the war effort, this resulted in the kitchen-gardening sector becoming affected and eventually food shortages started in 1916, this affected the cities a considerable amount as transport was mainly used for preparation the army and everything they needed. With industrialization hap pening at the same time as the war, Petrograd and Moscows populations increased and resulted in overcrowding.Factories were hiring more people than they were forrader the war and many people were affected by the food shortages, the first signs of a revolution started in 1916 when one million workers went on strike. These economic problems can all be attributed to World War I breaking out. Why the war wasnt a factor Some could argue that the World War was not the cause of the two revolutions.The Tsar had gained alot of support from the war at first and many believe they should work together to win the war but all of this came undone when he removed himself from Russia to join the army in the front line. It could also be argued that even though the war contributed to the Revolution the problems for the revolutions was there before the war and anything could have triggered the revolution. But its just so happened that poor decisions during the war lead to the revolution occurring.The first revolution could be the result of the poor political set up in Russia. With a Duma being granted by the Tsar after the 1905 Revolution. With the Duma being set up after the October manifesto it was idle as it had no power with the Tsar still being the main controller of the Duma. It could not do anything against the Tsar otherwise risking being shut down and even though it supposedly gave more power to the people in matter of fact the Tsar had the majority of control. conclusionIn conclusion, even though there were factors such as social, economic and political within the country which varied between short and long term as well as foolish decisions made by Tsar Nicholas II and Kerensky leader of the provisional government. The world war was the cause of most of the problems and also was the cataylyst of tese problems making them worse. Because of this reasoning the World War should be considered as a large cause and factor for both October and February revolution of Russia in 1917.